Sunday, March 13, 2011

The West is the Best: Stats (Like Hips) Don't Lie

This is the best picture that I can find that represents East vs West. Nuff said. (photo via smartassradio.com)
For those of you who don't know, I'm an Ottawa Senators fan. I don't need a shoulder to cry on or any type of consolation for this Club's luck (or lack of it) this year. 29th overall. Worse than the always crappy Islanders. Not doing much better than the young and rebuilding Oilers. And most painfully, the Leafs are in the hunt for that 8th seed in the home stretch while the Sens are planning their strategy for the 2011 Entry Draft. 1st or 2nd pick? Nugent-Thompkins, Laarsen, Landeskog, or Couturier? Not the kind of conversation you want your team to have at this point in the season. For more of my Sens ranting, check out my other blog Stranger In Leaf Nation.

The Race is On

I can't remember the last time the NHL Western playoff race was this tight. As of Saturday, March 12th, 8 points separate the 11th seed from 4th. Within that range we are looking at the Kings, Stars, Flames, Ducks, Predators, Coyotes, Hawks, and Wild. The top might change with Detroit, Vancouver and the Sharks sitting comfortably in the top 3 seeds, as the red hot Hawks are knocking on the door. The craziest part of the Western race has to be the 12th seeded Blue Jackets playing with a winning record at 31-26-8. Flip it to the East in the same spot, we're looking at the Devils at 31-32-4. The spread from 4th to 11th on the Atlantic side of the league is 18 points. The West continues to be the strongest side in the NHL year over year. But I've also noticed this trend in the NBA. Was Jim Morrison right all along? Is the West the best?

The Numbers Game

Let's take a look at both leagues and compare the conferences. For the sake of this exercise, I prorated the NBA's games played to a 68 game average, since they start almost a month after the NHL drops the puck for the first faceoff. The NHL teams as a whole have played, on average, 68 games. I counted an NHL overtime loss as a loss even though they get a charity point for not winning. This analysis is far from scientific, but I wanted to show the trends per conference and league.

Here is a the table I created showing the breakdown:

The highlighted items show the overall leaders per analysed criteria.
The first stat that jumps out is the overall record per conference per league. In both cases, the West is playing over .500, with the NBA leading the way. I assigned a point system (2 points for a win, 0 for a loss...again this is far from scientific) and on average the West leads in both Leagues.

To further validate my initial point (the spread from 4th to 11th), the win differential is incredible. The difference in wins from East to West is at least 9.

In terms of championships, the Stanley Cup was split 50/50 between the East and West over the last 10 years. On the flip side, The West has won 7 of the last 10 NBA finals.

So my question to everyone is: why is the West stronger? Do elite talent prefer a warmer climate? Are Western teams better at signing big name players and stronger in terms of scouting and long term planning? Is it the water?

Without going into a study of talent within both leagues, I've noticed that the level of intensity and speed in the West is much more fast paced compared to the East. In the NHL, the East is know for the slow paced, trap style game. The West is a much more open, a run and gun game. I don't watch enough NBA to assume the same type of play by conference, but I would think that it's comparable.

So I'll leave the discussion up to you: is the West really the best? Leave your thoughts in the comments.

-Paqman

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